Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
